MyDD :: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY

Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY

by AK Democrat, Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:40:02 AM EST

After a thunderous victory in the February 5th Super Tuesday caucus, I was very curious if the numbers would hold up in the state convention.

Did they ever!

During our state convention on Saturday, Obama received a staggering 77.5% of the state delegate total, giving him 11 of the 14 pledged delegates! Obama also received (in the personage of former two-term Governor and neighbor Tony Knowles) an extra unpledged add-on, plus three of the four already determined superdelegates. The state party chair, Patti Higgins, kept her support for Hillary Clinton.

So, at the end of the day, the grand total was 14 to 4, a ten delegate edge for Obama in (population) tiny Alaska, the (square miles) BIGGEST STATE in the land!

This is the power of the caucus--the haters can say what they want, but in a staggeringly white (74% white, 4.3% african-american) state like ours, we took it to the streets and made the biggest possible difference we could, energized, motivated, fired up and ready to go. Many of us walked from home to home, making calls for weeks leading up to Super Tuesday, conducting caucus training, being as ready as possible to maximize our impact. IT'S NOT OUR FAULT that Hillary's folks were unwilling to spend any money up here, that they weren't willing to put a single full-time organizer up here, that they weren't even, as far as I know, making that many calls up here. WE KNEW THE RULES--and we took advantage of them.

Ten delegates--thats two less than she netted in both West Virginia and Pennsylvania, one less than New Jersey, and more than she netted in states like Ohio, Indiana, and Arizona.

Surely our numbers are more impressive than Puerto Rico--the Alaska matchup polling Obama vs. McCain is within the margin of error, we have real pickup opportunities against both Don Young and Ted Stevens, and we have actual electoral votes up for grabs in November!

(Yeah, this is a cheerleader diary!)

http://www.alaskademocrats.org/

http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data /alaska/demographic.html

Tags: obama, clinton, 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 21 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 1)

Photobucket

I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson

by obamaovermccain on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:42:44 AM EST

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 1)

Incredible that the Alaska caucus yielded a greater spread of net delegates than the Pennsylvania primary. Just an observation.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:43:56 AM EST

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 1)

Not really. As the diarist points out, Clinton didn't bother to contest the Alaska caucus, while Obama fought hard for votes in Pennsylvania. If Clinton had planned a sensible campaign, she could have cut Obama's caucus leads to slivers. For some reason, she didn't bother.

by letterc on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:32:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (1.00 / 0)

I don't agree. No amount of "organization" could overcome the voting barriers caucuses posed to Hillary supporters.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:40:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 1)

You mean the fact that she's irrevocably pissed off the "activist base" by voting in a way that they find immoral?

Wow.

I'm sorry, but her husband did very, very well in caucuses in 1992, and he was renominated. If anybody knows how they work, it's the Clintons. If she couldn't win with that much-vaunted experience, then what purpose does it serve?

by Reaper0Bot0 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:51:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (1.66 / 3)

Bill and Hillary are two distinct people with very different primary coalitions.

There have been countless allegations both reported and unreported of fraud and coercion in the caucuses, even in Iowa. The Texas caucus is thus far probably the most famous example. There have also been reports of "volunteers" from Illinois participating in many of the out of state caucuses, a feat easy to imagine when you see the firsthand footage of caucuses and precint captains failing to identify participants and so forth.

The deterring effect caucuses have on the elderly, on single parents, on people who work during the time frames, and on people without information access to the system are well known also. The lack of a secret ballot invites an unacceptable amount of groupthink.

But we count them regardless of their flaws just as we will ultimately count the primaries in Florida and Michigan which, by most standards, were much more legitimate.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:25:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 3)

Picking two states arbitrarily, Iowa and Wisconsin:

The elderly represented 22% of voters in Iowa, and 22% of voters in Wisconsin.

Women represented 57% in Iowa, 58% in Wisconsin.

Voters with income < $50,000 were 42% in Iowa, 40% in Wisconsin

Education wasn't listed in the published exit polls for Iowa, so I can't compare those.

Utah (another caucus) voters over 65 made up 15%, women made up 57%, no college degree was 48% (vs. 58% in Wisconsin), under $50,000 were 32%. There are some differences there, but not so huge that Clinton couldn't have made up a large part of the difference if she had paid any attention to the state (also, from looking at Utah exit polls from 2004 years ago, I seem to remember that Utah Dems are disproportionately young and wealthy and well educated (out of state professionals is my guess)).

In Iowa, Clinton and Obama tied among voters who had caucused before, but Obama blew her out of the water among new caucus goers. So traditional caucus goers favored Clinton over Obama. Obama's accomplishment was to do what Dean failed to do, get new voters out to the polls.

If you have better data that contradicts this, I'd love to see it, but this glance at the exit polls doesn't seem to me to support the idea that Clinton faced insurmountable odds in the caucuses (and even if she would have lost, she definitely wouldn't have lost so badly if she hadn't ignored them).

by letterc on Mon May 26, 2008 at 04:21:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (none / 0)

I appreciate your use of facts and attention to detail. The problem I see is that Iowa, of all caucus states, was least representative of the pro-Obama skew in all substantive caucuses. IIRC, Obama's margin there was +8% where in all subsequent caucuses, they were well over 25% (excepting Maine and Texas).

I'm guessing you cited Wisconsin as an example of a primary to show the similarities between the caucus & primary demographics.

For me, Nebraska, Washington, and Texas are the most telling because those states held both. In the caucuses, the turnout was substantially lower than the primary, which signifies voter barriers. In the caucuses, the Obama skew was very deviant from the states' C/O spreads at large, which raises the issues of lacking secret ballots and the inappropriate role of public pressure in a voting environment, which, at the risk of generalizing, seems on its surface that it would disadvantage a less intellectually secure population, the elderly, and women vis-a-vis very energized rules-literate healthy young white men.

Despite these concerns, I have never argued for stripping caucus states of their delegates or removing their small-turnout-fueled small effects on the popular vote. Rather, I point out these problems to illustrate that the "concerns" many people have on the legitimacy of the Florida and Michigan elections, failing "international standards" and what not, are present nationwide.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 04:37:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (none / 0)

I wanted to use Minnesota, as I figured Minnesota and Wisconsin are demographically very similar, but Minnesota wasn't exit polled. I tried Hawaii, but it wasn't exit polled. Then I gave up and grabbed Iowa, although I agree that it isn't representative (Iowa is much better organized, has high turnout, and all of the campaigns staked out there for ages). I added Utah because I thought Iowa was likely to be unrepresentative.

I do think it is telling that where Clinton decided to contest caucuses (NV, TX, IA) she did much, much better than she did when she ignored them (MN, UT, ID), although I agree that Texas is definitely a strong case for Obama being better situated to take advantage of caucuses (Nebraska and Washington primaries had very low attendance, and Clinton voters had much more to prove than Obama voters).

It is a pleasure discussing this with you.

by letterc on Mon May 26, 2008 at 05:37:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (none / 0)

Likewise.

I wasn't sure whether you were proposing Wisconsin as another caucus example (as Minnesota would be) or as a primary v. caucus comparison to Iowa. Minnesota had a caucus while Wisconsin had a primary. Wisconsin has the distinction of being the only post Super Tuesday primary thought to have deviated from demographics based predictions, FWIW. Hillary was expected to keep it tight but it ended up being an Obama blowout. It was a clear case of national momentum trumping local demographic trends.

After March however, we started to get to the point where elections became mere formalities in translating Census data into election returns. The only state that arguably deviated from this trend was Indiana, a state I was personally expecting Hillary to lose by 5%.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 06:02:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 1)

Captain Morgan troll rated this comment. What a first rate asshole! BPK80 is not a troll, and this is a substantive comment that attacks no one.

by letterc on Mon May 26, 2008 at 04:23:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (none / 0)

Thank you.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 04:38:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (none / 0)

Then how did she win the Nevada caucus?

by Angry White Democrat on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:03:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Congrats to you (2.00 / 1)

Hopefully Young wins his primary so he can be a lamb to the slaughter in Nov.

And with Barr in as the L candidate the state just might be blue.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:49:51 AM EST

Re: Congrats to you (2.00 / 2)

Too true about Young--Sean Parnell would be tough to beat.

The last numbers I saw were something like 45-42 for Don Young, but there were a few questions about that survey. I thought (ever so briefly) of crossing over and voting for Don Young in the primary, but decided against it.

I ain't no Operation Chaos tool!

"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."

by AK Democrat on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:53:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 1)

Great job! Don't let people tell you your just a participant in an undemocratic process. You fought for your candidate, that is to be admired, not discouraged.

And good luck in November. I have a feeling that motivated Obama supporters up there can make AK competitive come the GE.

by BlueGAinDC on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:50:10 AM EST

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (2.00 / 2)

"Many of us walked from home to home, making calls for weeks leading up to Super Tuesday, conducting caucus training, being as ready as possible to maximize our impact. IT'S NOT OUR FAULT that Hillary's folks were unwilling to spend any money up here, that they weren't willing to put a single full-time organizer up here, that they weren't even, as far as I know, making that many calls up here. WE KNEW THE RULES--and we took advantage of them."

That's exactly right! Regardless of whether or not you like the voting system you compete and work hard to win. I think the community aspect of the caucuses is really great, and the arguments that take place make people think rather than mindlessly checking a box.

by Renie on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:53:11 AM EST

Hmmm (none / 0)

maybe he can work some more of his magic spells and turn AK blue in the fall- I have hope.

by linc on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:58:05 AM EST

Re: Hmmm (none / 0)

why stop there, lets shoot for Mars!!!

it is too red over there!

I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson

by obamaovermccain on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:00:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alaska is OBAMA COUNTRY (none / 0)

This could be a big year for Democrats in Alaska. Much credit to the Obama campaign for their part in the organizing work.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman