There was a rec'd diary up for a while dismissing Hillary because of some new polls in Colorado, Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan. The states involved carry 50 Electoral Votes. Hillary is within the margin of error, close to McCain when they run against each other in those states.
There were some other interesting numbers in the swing state polls of matchups between McCain/ Obama, and McCain/ Clinton. In the six potential swing states fully matched and reported May 21:
Obama wins one, beating both Clinton and McCain in COLORADO.
McCain wins two, beating Obama and Clinton in polls in UTAH, VA. Clinton wins three, beating McCain, and Obama loses against McCain.
Clinton wins FLORIDA, MISSOURI and NORTH CAROLINA.
So for May 21:
Obama - 9 electoral votes
Hillary - 53 electoral votes
How about new polls out May 22 on potential swing states:
There are new polls fully matched in five states.
Polls show both Clinton and Obama ahead of McCain in CALIFORNIA and PENNSYLVANIA, and if either wins there are 76 electoral votes.
In the other three states fully matched with new polls:
Clinton beats McCain in FLORIDA and McCain beats Obama.
Clinton beats McCain in OHIO and McCain beats Obama.
Clinton beats McCain in NEVADA and McCain beats Obama.
In the new, fully matched potential swing state polls new on May 22, Clinton wins in states that Obama loses, netting 52 electoral votes.
So on the new matched polls of matchups between Clinton/McCain and Obama/McCain we look to see if there are any states in which one Democrat wins against McCain and the other Democrat loses against McCain. Florida was repeated on both days with new fully matched polls.
May 21: Obama 9 and Clinton 53 electoral votes
May 22: Since both Democrats beat McCain in CA and PA, set those 76 votes aside. So the net for the day is Obama 0 and Clinton 52.
Total electoral votes in potential swing states over the new polls May 21 and 22 at RCP.
Obama: net 9
Clinton: net 104 (minus the second FL poll 104-27=78 net)
Clinton is clearly gaining in the state matchup polls. And most of her wins are in states with more electoral votes than the Obama wins, putting her in better shape to win the Presidency.
There was chatter around the diaries last week about Obama bringing in a lot of states that the Democrats could not otherwise win. There was hope that western states like Nevada and New Mexico and Colorado, Oregon and maybe others(some even argued Utah and Arizona for Obama!) would only go blue if our nominee turned out to be Obama. There was also suggestion that he would put some southern states in play, mentioning Obama being able to rally the Black bloc to beat McCain in North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and others.
This week it does not look as hopeful. Georgia is polling heavily for McCain, as are other Deep South states. Maybe there is something in VA. The west may offer Colorado, but New Mexico is polling for Clinton and McCain. Nevada polls for wins by Clinton and McCain, Arizona polls for McCain. Utah is polling for McCain by 40 points. Clinton is 0.3 of a point below McCain in Oregon.
And then there is North Carolina. The state where many said Clinton's fate was sealed. The state that double counted absentee/early ballots in the precincts and again in the county totals of urban counties like Wake and Mecklenburg, boosting the apparent margin of Obama's victory by tens of thousands of votes.
The new SurveyUSA poll on North Carolina:
NORTH CAROLINA May 17-19
McCain 51 Obama 43
CLINTON 49 McCain 43
So we can have a highly recommended diary written in such a way as to leave the impression that Senator Clinton is not growing in electability and strength and that Senator Obama was rising in a sweep of new polls. Not true.
Since March 1 Clinton has won more of everything - races, delegtates, people voting, electoral votes and individual state matchups in states where McCain beats Obama. What she hasn't won more of is superdelegate announcements and media awareness of her victories and growing strength.
Wonder what this race would look like if it were fairly reported?
For those not onto poll and electoral sites try:
Real Clear Politics
We can look at the different versions, including the one on this site, and see which states are thought to be swing or in play and which are thought to be brought in by each candidate. There are even maps you can set up and save and add to with your own notions of which states will go with which candidates.
The state matchups are a little more helpful than the national polls right now because the area is smaller and more keyed to the individual differences voters will take to the booth. Also in many cases it is closer to voting time and more in mind than more distant November. Also McCain has had much less exposure and is still running formidably very early. All polls have their fans and detractors, so let's not devolve into nit picking.
We could go to the the average of the polls for the last couple of months ending May 20, if you would rather, and Clinton walks away against McCain with jumbo electoral votes. McCain beats Obama and Obama comes in 3rd in the averaged polls of swing states, like he does in the last two days.
In all of the swing states averaged on RCP on May 20:
Hillary against McCain ended with HILLARY 175 McCain 85
Obama against McCain ended with Obama 145 McCainN 164
In states where Clinton beat McCain but Obama did not - 63 EV's net
In states where Obama beat McCain but Clinton did not -33 EV's net
Any way we slice it Hillary is the clear winner among the three potential nominees when the time comes to count the electoral votes for President.
When we decide to get really serious about winning the White House, we're going to have to find a way to get behind Hillary as our actual, eventual nominee.
Note: CNN reported on an exit pole from May 20th:
71% of Obama voters said they'd vote for Clinton if she is the nominee.
23% of Clinton votes said they'd vote for Obama if he is the nominee; 43% would vote for McCain, and the rest would stay home or skip voting for President and vote down ticket.
To test the credibility of these statements, the reporter looked at the same question in exit polls in the last 2 elections, and found that primary voters who said they wouldn't vote for a particular Democratic candidate if he became the nominee actually voted for Bush in greater numbers than indicated during the exit polls. If we really want the White House, we've got a lot to think about. And Hillary as VP won't cut it.
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